Clinical efficacy of therapy was assessed as the number needed to Selumetinib cell line treat (NNT) to prevent 1 death in 5 years, which was calculated with the adjusted hazard ratio (HR) of SVR for all-cause mortality and the individual’s estimated 5-year survival based on our externally validated mortality risk score (including solely objective variables). [NNT=(1/(estimated 5y-survival without SVR^(HR of SVR) – estimated 5y-survival without SVR))*(100/ SVR rate)] RESULTS In total, 530 patients were followed for a median of 8.4 (IQR 6.4-11.4) years. Median age was 48 (IQR 42-56) years,
143 (27%) patients had bridging fibrosis and 387 (63%) had cirrhosis. SVR was attained by 192 (36%) patients. Cox analyses showed that SVR was independently associated with reduced all-cause mortality (adjusted HR 0.25, 95%CI 0.12-0.53), without significant interactions with any baseline variables. Among patients without SVR, the 5-year mortality rate was 8.6 (95%CI 5.7-11.5). For calculating the NNT, the HR of SVR was fixed at 0.25 and the SVR rate at 95%. The NNT to prevent 1 death in 5 years was
29, 15, 10 or 8 in case of a 5-year mortality risk of 5, 10, 15 or 20%, respectively. The figure shows the estimated NNT and 5-year mortality risk, according to the individual’s mortality risk score. CONCLUSION These results indicate that the clinical efficacy of interferon-free therapy varies extensively this website among patients with advanced liver disease, which might provide guidance when prioritizing patients for treatment with these costly regimens. Mortality Risk Score=age (in years)- platelets (per 109/L) + (258.8*log10(AST/ALT))
+ (64.5 for males) Disclosures: Adriaan J. van der Meer – Speaking and Teaching: MSD, Gilead Raoel Maan – Consulting: AbbVie Jordan J. Feld – Advisory Committees or Review Panels: Idenix, Merck, Janssen, Gilead, AbbVie, Merck, Theravance, Bristol Meiers Squibb; Grant/Research Support: AbbVie, Boehringer Ingelheim, Janssen, Gilead, Merck Heiner Wedemeyer – Advisory Committees or Review Panels: Transgene, MSD, Roche, Gilead, Abbott, BMS, Falk, Abbvie, Novartis, GSK; Grant/Research Support: MSD, Novartis, Gilead, Roche, Abbott; Speaking and Teaching: BMS, MSD, Novartis, ITF, Abbvie, Gilead Jean-Francois Dufour – Advisory Committees or Review Panels: Bayer, BMS, Gil-ead, Janssen, Novartis, Roche, Jennerex, Merck; Speaking and Teaching: Bayer, Alanine-glyoxylate transaminase Boehringer-Ingelheim, Novartis, Roche Andres Duarte-Rojo – Advisory Committees or Review Panels: Gilead Sciences; Grant/Research Support: Vital Therapies Michael P. Manns – Consulting: Roche, BMS, Gilead, Boehringer Ingelheim, Novartis, Idenix, Achillion, GSK, Merck/MSD, Janssen, Medgenics; Grant/ Research Support: Merck/MSD, Roche, Gilead, Novartis, Boehringer Ingelheim, BMS; Speaking and Teaching: Merck/MSD, Roche, BMS, Gilead, Janssen, GSK, Novartis Stefan Zeuzem – Consulting: Abbvie, Boehringer Ingelheim GmbH, Bristol-Myers Squibb Co., Gilead, Novartis Pharmaceuticals, Merck & Co.